روشهای محاسبه مناطق مستعد برخورد شناورها در تحلیل ریسک آبراهه

نوع مقاله: مروری

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استادیار، سازمان بنادر و دریانوردی

چکیده

صنعت حمل و نقل دریایی، پایه اصلی تجارت جهانی بوده و بیش از 90 درصد حمل و نقل کالا از طریق دریا صورت می‌گیرد. بر این اساس، ایمنی در دریا بسیار مورد توجه بوده و کنوانسیون‏های اخیر انتشار یافته از سوی سازمان جهانی دریانوردی به خوبی بیان‏گر این موضوع است. از طرف دیگر، مدیریت ایمنی در هر مجموعه‏ای شامل مدیریت و کنترل ریسک‌ها بوده و پیش نیاز این مفهوم، محاسبه ریسک است. در حمل و نقل دریایی، برخورد شناورها از جمله مخرب‌ترین و پرتکرارترین سوانح دریایی است. بر همین اساس، تحلیل ریسک برخورد شناورها از اهمیت ویژه‏ای برخوردار است. در این مقاله و با هدف آشنایی با محاسبه ریسک برخورد شناورها، این مفهوم در نگاه کمی - که شامل حاصل‏ضرب فرکانس وقوع و پیامد وقوع است - تشریح گردیده است. در ادامه و با تمرکز بر فرکانس برخورد - با تمرکز بر نگه پیش‏گیرانه در مدیریت ریسک - که خود شامل نقاط مستعد برخورد و علل برخورد است، چهار رویکرد آماری، تحلیلی، شبکه‏ای و شبیه‏سازی در محاسبه تعداد نقاط و محدوده‏های مستعد برخورد، به طور کامل بررسی و مقایسه شده است. مطالعات به خوبی نشان می‏دهد که امکان توسعه نرم‏افزار کاربردی در این حوزه، مهیا است. گسترش حمل و نقل دریایی در مناطق خلیج فارس و دریای عمان و توسعه فعالیت‏های بندری در کشور نیز، بر اهمیت این موضوع می‏افزاید

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Methods for identifying Vessels high collision concentration locations in waterways

نویسندگان [English]

  • S Film 1
  • R Panahi 2
  • A Moradi 3
  • S Khoram 3
چکیده [English]

Maritime transportation industry; as the backbone of global trade; provides more than 90 percent of cargo transportation overseas. Accordingly, safety at sea is highly regarded. On the other hand, safety management requires risk assessment as its prerequisite. In maritime transportation, vessel collision is the most destructive and most frequent accident. Accordingly, collision risk assessment is the most important task when talking about the safety of transportation. In this article, the concept is reviewed including frequency of occurrence as well as its consequence. Then with a focus on the frequency of collisions; which includes high risk locations and causation factor; four approaches to evaluate high risk locations are fully investigated as statistical, analytic, network-based and simulation-based ones. The study clearly shows a good potential to develop software in this area. It becomes more important when looking at sea transportation at the region as well Iran’s port development projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • maritime transportation risk
  • vessels collision
  • traffic simulation
[1] Vinnem JE. "Offshore risk assessment: principles, modeling and applications of  QRA studies", London: Springer-Verlag; 2007.

[2] Kristiansen S. "Maritime transportation: safety management and risk analysis",
Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. 2005.

[3] Fujii Y, Shiobara R. "The analysis of traffic accidents", Journal of Navigation. 24(4):534–43, 1971.

[4] MacDuff T. "The probability of vessel collisions. Ocean Industry", pp.144-148, 1974.

[5] Hanninen M, Kujala P. "The effects of causation probability on the ship collision statistics in the Gulf of Finland", Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation. London: Taylor and Francis, . pp. 267–272, 2009.

[6] PIANC. "Ship Collision due to the Presence of Bridge", Report of Working Group 19 of the INLAND, 2001.

[7] PIANC,Ship Collision due to the Presence of Bridge, Report of Working Group 19 of the INLAND NAVIGATION COMMISION. PIANC General Secretariat, 2001.

[8] Itoh, H. Mitomo, N. Matsuoka, T. Murohara, Y. "An Extension of M-Shel Model for Analysis of
Human Factors at Ship Operation" Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships (ICCGS), Izu, Japan, 2004.

[9] Gucma, L. "Method of ship-bridge collision safety evaluation", Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications. Vol.2, 50-63, 2009.

[10]           Ylitalo, J. "Modelling Marine Accident Frequency" Aalto University School of Science and Technology,M.S. thesis, 2010.

[11]           Pedersen PT. "Collision and grounding mechanics" Danish Society of Naval
Architects and Marine Engineers. pp:125–57, 1995.

[12]           Biehl, F., Dalhoff, P. Povel, D. "Collision Risk Analysis and Collision Friendly Design of Offshore Wind Farms", Swedish Energy Agency,2007.

[13]           AASHTO. "AASHTO LRFD bridge design specifications - SI units", 3rd edition. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, 2004.

[14]           Kunz, C. "Ship bridge collision in river traffic, analysis and design practice", Proceedings of the Ship Collision Analysis: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Advances in Ship Collision, Copenhagen, Denmark,1998.

[15]           Vrouwenvelder, A. C. W. M. "Design for Ship Impact according to Eurocode 1", Proceedings of the Ship Collision Analysis: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Advances in Ship Collision Analysis, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009.

[16]           Fang, J., Xu, Y., Liu, M., Zhang, J. and Li, B. "Study on dangerous collision area of ships out of control in Sutong Bridge area", Engineering Science, Vol.7, 83-86, 2009.

[17]           Nguyen, M. Q. "Approach channels: risk- and simulation-based design", Delft University of
Tecknoledge,M.S. thesis, 2000.

[18]           Geng, B., Wang, H. and Wang, J. "Probabilistic Model of Influence Parameters for VesselBridge Collisions in Three-Gorges Reservoir", Journal of Tongji University, pp.477-482, 2008.

[19]           Fowler, T. G. and Sorgard, E. "Modeling ship transportation risk", Risk Analysis, Vol. 20, 225-244, 2000.

[20]           COWI, "Risk Analysis of Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm", report, January 2010.

[21]           Goodwin, E. M. A "Statistical Study of Ship Domains", The journal of Navigation, Vol.28, 328-344, 1975.

[22]           Davis, P., Dove, M. and Stockel, C. "A computer simulation of marine traffic using domains and arenas", The journal of Navigation, 33, 215-222, 1980.

[23]           Pimontel, L. A. "A study into maritime collision probability", M.S. thesis,TU Delft, 2007.

[24]           Kujala, P., Hanninen, M., Arola, T. Ylitalo, J.  "Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the
Gulf of Finland" Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol.94, 1349-1357, 2009.

[25]           Montewka J, Hinz T, Kujala P, Matusiak J. "Probability modeling of vessel collision", Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 95(5):573–89, 2010.

[26]           http://www.marin.nl/web/Facilities-Tools/ Simulators/SimulatorFacilities/Fasttime-Simulators.htm

[27]           U.S. Coast Guard, "Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment Workshop Report", 2006.

[28]           Van Dorp, J. R., Merrick, J. R. W., Mazzuchi, T. A. "Accident probability assessment with covariate information", European Journal of Operational Research, 169, 157-177, 2004.

[29]           Szwed, P., van Dorp, J. R., Merrick, J. R. W., Mazzuchi, T. A. Singh, A. "A Bayesian paired
comparison approach for relative….", European Journal of Operational Research, 176, 180-195, 2006.

[30]           Łącki, M., Weintrit, A., Neumann, T., Formela, K., Kalina, T., Piala, P., Boykov, A., Katenin, V., Demchenkov, O. Gucma, L. "Neuroevolutionary Ship Handling System in a Windy Environment", International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 6, 453-
458, 2012.

[31]           Van der Rijken, W. W. J. L. "Capability statement of mscn simulators",Maritime Research Institute Netherlands,2000.

[32]           Fujii, Y. and Tanaka, K. "Traffic capacity", Journal of Navigation, Vol.24, 543–552. 1971.

 

[33]           Kijima, K. and Furukawa, Y. "Automatic collision avoidance system using the concept of blocking area" Proceeding of IFAC Conference on Manoeuvring and Control of Marine Craft, Girona, Spain. 2003.

[34]           Coldwell, T. G. "Marine traffic behaviour in restricted waters" The Journal of Navigation, 36,
431–444. 1983.

[35]           Pietrzykowski, Z. "Ship’s fuzzy domain-a criterion for navigational safety in narrow fairways", The Journal of Navigation, 61, 499–514. 2008.

[36]           Smierzchalski, R. and Michalewicz, Z. "Modelling of a ship trajectory in collision situations at sea by evolutionary algorithm",  IEEE Transaction on Evolutionary Computation, 4(3), 227–241, 2000.

[37]           U.S. Coast Guard, Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment, Final report, 2010.